According to the forecasts of Development and Research Center of China (DRC), in the long term, China’s grain self-sufficiency level can be reduced down to 80%. According to IA Reuters reports.
Almost two decades ago, China was planning to keep its grain self-sufficiency at 95% level. While plan implementation, however, some complications aroused, and resulted in an increase of grain import. Country’s arable lands and water resources are declining, while urbanization and increase of population’s wellbeing lead to an increase in grain demand.
According to DRC’s forecasts, in the next 25 years, increasing rate of grain demand will significantly outplace growth of domestic grain production. According to the DRC experts, China has to keep its grain self-sufficiency at no less than 80% level, while concentrating on reaching its full security in livestock goods. In normal years, its sufficiency may reach level of 90% and above; yet may be reduced down to 85-87% in abnormal years. Own production of wheat and rise, most likely, will be able to satisfy domestic demand for the crops. By 2020, self-sufficiency for corn, however, may drop down to approximately 92%, by 2035- down to 84%. This will lead to growth of import to 19.87 million tons and 50.36 million tons, respectively.
By 2020 import of soy may grow to 69.06 million tons, by 2035- to 89.28 million tons. At the time China already is the largest importer of soybeans; its share in world market of this crop is 60%.It is expected that in the year to come China will import 60 million tons of soy.