Outlook of futures agricultural market
This week marked the most active funds and speculators in agricultural futures market since the summer of 2015, which contributed to the active growth of prices.
The volume of trades reached only in corn 855,000 contracts on CBOT and whether such actions supported by fundamental factors shall see later. News, supporting the trend of recent days, you can call the heat in Brazil, which may reduce productivity "safrinha" and rains in Argentina, which prevent the harvesting campaign. But hardly stand prices at such levels, when the enthusiasm of the great players and so many traders use this to hedge their price risks, and farmers selling their stocks.
Market wheat albeit not received news that could justify such a rapid growth (contrary to the balance of supply and demand greatly dominated the latter and comfortable weather conditions over the main growing areas allow to expect a good harvest this year), but still the players were forced back the general trend and funds reduced their "short" positions by 10%. Futures trading session closed at the highs of the day.
Although the world is full of soy (in the US stocks at the 9th annual maximum) prices last month increased very substantially and the number of open speculative positions higher than in 2012, when it was the worst drought and the price reached its historic high. And even that China increased its imports last year by 4% soy and 38% oil can`t explain this situation in the market. Data on volume and volatility in the market exceeds the most active autumn harvest period in the Northern Hemisphere.