Compared with the previous year, the speed of wheat sales by Australian farmers, grain harvest of 2014/15MY, declined by three times. Thus, in particular, currently there is only 10% of the harvest sold, compared with 30% at the same time during the preceding season. This is due, primarily, to anxious moods among Australian farmers while they anticipate arrival of El Niño, which mean severe droughts and poor harvests all throughout the country. According to ABARES, current forecast of wheat harvest in Australia is 24.6 million tons, which is significantly less than last year. El Niño, however, probability of which experts of State Meteorological Service of Australia estimate at 70%, can lead to the situation where the gross harvest of grain in the country will be much poorer than predicted.

In the meantime, on the eve of El Niño and anticipation of droughts and poor harvests, major Asian countries-importers are more than interested in restocking up on cheap imported wheat. In particular, in recent weeks the importers from Indonesia, Malaysia and other Asian countries conducted some massive tenders for the purchase of wheat. Where, primarily grain of Black Sea origin was bought.

Reduction of presence of Australian wheat on the market opens a lot more opportunities for the Black Sea exporters, despite the fact that their positions on this market are already steadily tend to strengthen. It may be assumed that the massive imports of Black Sea wheat by Asian countries that are in the risk area associated with the El Niño phenomenon, in the coming months will become only stronger.