Outlook of agricultural futures market

News list

Bloomberg commodity index, which included the dynamics of 22 assets, grew by 17% compared to lows reached on January 20. Meanwhile, to overcome the threshold that separates the upward correction of the bull market, requires an increase of 20%. Soybean, gold, silver, crude oil and coffee already crossed this threshold. Only in April index rose by 8.5%. According to Bloomberg, the beginning of the year, investors have invested in exchange-traded funds focused on raw materials, about $ 18.3 billion. The total amount of assets invested in commodity hedge funds, ETF and passive indexes reached $ 315 billion - a maximum value since May 2015, said in the April report of Citigroup.

China announced two months ago that the planned abolition of its system of stockpiling corn, which made it the country with the largest proposal of corn in the world, has introduced a premium on domestic prices and led to an excess of imported corn and alternative feed. Now in Kansas, the main producer in the US, sorghum accumulated because farmers who planted it years ago, broke the hopes of Chinese demand. Due to the sharp lack of demand, as of today, the total reserves of sorghum are the highest in two decades. Offer free volume filled elevators and sorghum may now lower wheat prices, as little storage space, and a few weeks farmers will collect new crop wheat.

During the week of corn market grew significantly supported the growth of export demand. Corn export sales totaled 1.382 million tons, while sales of old crop - 426.2 ths. tons, with market expectations of 1.0 million tons to 1.3 million tons for the 2016/17 crop and 250-450 ths. tons for 2015 / 16 MY.

The US corn crop is nearing completion. The largest area of planted corn in Missouri (97%), Minnesota (98%), North Dakota (91%), Tennessee (97%). Exactly what kind of climate will occur in July and August, will largely depend on the level of productivity and total supply gross harvest of corn. The probability of La Niña in 2016 increased over the past week, climate models indicate a 50% possibility of a weather phenomenon this year.

Corn market finished the week with growth of 18.25 cents per bushel, reaching 412.75 cents per bushel and strengthened term uptrend entrenched on a monthly schedule for the important resistance level - 411.25 cents per bushel. The next opposite uptrend will cost 431.25 cents per bushel. Weekly stochastic remains bullish, as CFTC data confirm the growth hedgers long positions to 183,000 contracts.

The July contract for soybeans rose by the end of May to 48 cents per bushel, leaving a strong upward trend and overcome many levels of resistance. One of the major goals in the near future will be the level 11,50-11,60 dollars per bushel. Like last week, the new crop contracts not so much set to upward movement, and the number of open long positions fell by 1,425 contracts.

The July contract for wheat in Chicago rose on the results of trading week at 14 cents per bushel, which allowed to achieve the medium-term uptrend. The nearest resistance level - 516 cents per bushel. Relative Strength Index also supports the upward movement in the short term.