Next year expect growth in world production of corn to record levels, which however is equal of increasing global consumption to a new high value. Such optimistic forecasts on production associated with the third best gross harvest in the United States in the history of observations and if the final value of nearly exceed goals, then feed wheat can satisfy the needs of feed, because its stocks are up, and the spread between the price of corn and wheat is very narrow.
In relation to soybeans also forecast record harvest that is based on expectations of a record gross harvest in Brazil, the second best harvest in Argentina and three best in the US. But consumption has even exceed the level of production available 2016/17 marketing year, which will reduce inventories that have been reduced by the end of the 2015/16 marketing year, which caused a sharp increase in futures.
But should note that global gross yield is based on a record crop yields around the world, which is held for 3 years and the slightest change in weather conditions can shorten available product, but consumption is likely to remain high, which adversely affect the final stocks and in this case the price increase. Unlike the smooth downward trend, growth accompanied by sharp jumps, as was seen recently and in the summer 2012, so you need to carefully watch for any changes in weather conditions.
Contracts for old and new crop finished last week with growth of 13-14 cents per bushel. Medium-term trend remains to stay in the side of the trend beyond 351 and 411 cents per bushel. The volume of trades fell to very low levels, but little growth MACD-Histogram suggests further upward movement to the upper limit of the trading range.
The July contract for soybeans rose 30 cents per bushel leaving a long-term upward trend in the movement of resistance levels near 10.75 dollars per bushel. However, the stochastic is far overbought level that is slightly delay the rising trend of soybean complex. Relative strength index gradually decreases as indicating reduced activity of buyers.
In the wheat market also saw a rise last week, which allowed to form a short-term uptrend, which in turn should support the upward trend in the long run. Nearest resistance level stands the 50-day average - 480 cents per bushel. Raising the MACD-histogram above zero also help in growth of prices.