April 10 report of the USDA turned out to be “bearish”, as global stock of wheat, corn and soybean are significantly higher than market expectations, although stock of corn and soy in the U.S. were evaluated as below average expectations of analytics.

Wheat 2012/13: Evaluation of global wheat production kept almost unchanged since March.
Global consumption was reduced by 1.2 million tons since March forecast. Global trade (July/June) has increased since last month by
1.6 million tons. Global import has increased in some countries - most significantly in Iran, Algeria, and Ethiopia, which was partially offset by import reduction in Morocco, Bangladesh, Russia and others.
Export increased by EU (by 1 million tons), Ukraine (by 0.5 million
tons) and Russia (by 0.2 million tons).
Forecast for global wheat ending stocks increased by 2% to 182.26 million tons, much higher than previously expected (178.55- average estimate, 176.9-180- range), over stocks in the U.S. also exceeded the average market estimate. This level is by 8.6% lower than year before.
In Ukraine, estimate export increased by 0.5 million tons, to 7 million tons, while production remained unchanged (15.761 million tons).

Corn 2012/13: Evaluation of the global maize production increased by about 1.8 million tons, to 855.9 million tons, which, however, is by
26.6 million tons lower than year earlier. Estimates growth was primarily due to Brazil (by 1.5 million tons) and the EU (1.4 million tons), partially offset by a decline in South Africa (0.5 million tonnes).
Increase in export forecasts from Brazil and Ukraine, by 0.5 million tons of each was compensated by a similar decline in shipments from the United States and South Africa.
The USDA specialists increased their forecasts of corn import to China by 0.5 million tons, to 3 million tons (5.321 million tons in 2011/12).
The USDA analysts have increased world’s corn stock forecasts by 7%, to 125.29 million tons, far more than expected (119.104- average estimates, 108.13-125- range), at the same time the carry-over stocks in the U.S., though, was much higher from the previous month, but lower than the average market expectations.
In Ukraine export estimates grew by 0.5, to 13.5 million tons, expected yield was kept the same- at 20.9 million tons.

Soybean 2012/13: April forecasts of world soybean production increased by 1.6 million tons due to increase in Paraguay and Uruguay. USDA forecast for soy yield in Argentina and Brazil remained at March level, while analysts had expected a reduction of approximately 1 million tons for each country.
As of March global stock of soybean in 2012/13 increased by 4% , to
62.63 million tons, far more than expected (59.81- average estimates,
56.76-61 – range), although in the U.S. the carry-over stock is below market expectations.