Technical analysis of agricultural futures
For most farmers around the world, this year's selection, which crop to grow can be defined as the rate where the losses will be minimal. After three years of falling prices, profits farmers lowest in the last decade, and some agricultural areas in general are experiencing a period of stagnation and loss on one acre can reach $ 70. Since the peak in 2012 the price of 3 main agriculture (corn, wheat, soybeans) declined by more than 50%, and the technology seed improved to combat drought and pests, which allowed to increase the level of productivity of corn and soybeans by 23% and wheat by only 3.8%. And despite the large ending stocks, it is the ability to better productivity will compel farmers to increase plantings of corn and soybeans at the expense of wheat or other crops.
The overall quality status of crops of wheat in the US have improved in recent weeks, and therefore raised expectations residues, which further contributes to falling prices, which is already well on the 5-year minimum, as the CBOT and the MATIF. And now the current dynamic strengthening dollar only reduces the chances to find buyers for the US wheat market adds pressure along with a decrease in purchasing the largest importer of Egypt.
The May contract for corn trading week ended with growth of only 2 cents per bushel, reaching 367 cents per bushel. Double bottom, which was formed level - 354.25 cents per bushel (was recorded January 4) and 354.5 cents per bushel (in early March) provides an important level of resistance and possibly launch a strong upward trend in the medium term, supported by weekly stochastics . So far, what is the nearest futures pushed off the resistance level of 3.7 dollars per bushel and is dominated by short-term downward trend.
The July contract for wheat in Chicago recorded a decline for the week 12.5 cents to 4.7 dollars per bushel. Medium-term trend in the market is negative and stands near the level of support cost 449.5 cents a bushel; Resistance level - 477.25 cents per bushel. Histogram MACD fell below zero maintaining a downward trend in the wheat market that are very difficult to change due to the activity of speculators and funds in this direction.
The May contract for soybeans rose by only 1.5 cents, but still remained upward trend, helped achieve 4-week maximum - 904.75 cents per bushel. The next level of resistance - 917.5, and the level of support - 8.79 dollars per bushel. Weekly stochastics supports "bullish" trend due to cross below the oversold 20%. New crop contracts also set to increase with the goal - 928 cents per bushel.