Technical analysis of agricultural futures
Over the last week, corn futures, old and new crop, increased by only a couple of cents and figure "double bottom" remained practiced. Weekly stochastic further supports the upward movement, the nearest resistance level - 371.25 cents per bushel. The level of support - 350 cents per bushel.
Contracts for soybeans continued active upward movement reaching resistance level possible 915 cents per bushel, which is a large number of offers (sell orders) and from which a likely downward correction. Relative Strength Index reached a level of 68%, which also indicates overbought market and the need to conduct a technical sale.
The May contract in Chicago due to the recent trading days still managed to end the week in the green zone, but steady uptrend has not been established. The nearest support level - 449.5 cents per bushel, level of resistance - 470.75 cents per bushel. Histogram MACD is below zero, which does not inspire confidence in future growth.
On the corn market established short-term stability, prices are kept in narrow range 8 sessions in a row and still no fundamental news to support the uptrend appears, is to wait for the weather early season (starting in late April) in the Northern Hemisphere. Now, because of pressure from the bears, the ratio of risk/reward low and many market participants refuse action, and so reducing low market volatility. So next month out of the trading range of 350-370 cents per bushel unlikely, and this week more likely to return downward trend, although seasonally traders expect the upward dynamics, but it seems that all resigned to the resistance level of 371.25 cents per bushel. Additional pressure comes from statements about the possible increase in acreage by 2 mln. acres.
Except for the first trading days this week, futures trading in wheat is in the extreme downward, as speculators and hedgers, the number of open "short" positions too much and problems with weather conditions just may trigger closure and pulse growth in the coming days. Achieving multi minimum provoking speculators open "long" position and contribute to this strengthening of prices in the cash market.
Soy complex was the leader of growth in March due to some weather problems; internal political problems in Brazil, which is one of the key players in the market of soybean; prolonged rise in prices for palm oil, which pulled out of the entire oil complex. The above technical reasons allowed market traders back in the upward direction and extend the price spread between the US and South American countries, but now the May futures reached an important level of resistance 915 cents per bushel, which is possible turn down and fixing of profit. Also do not forget that fundamentally soybean market is too crowded and the remains acceptable price level is near $ 8 per bushel, which should be achieved sooner or later, especially given the small margin processors and weak demand from their side.